Winners and Losers of 2026

It’s the beginning of 2026, and we are already off to a turbulent start.

One of the few genuinely fun things you can still do at the start of a new year, especially in politics, is try to predict where things are headed. Most people are terrible at it. I’m probably no exception. But the exercise itself matters because it forces you to think through incentives, power, money, and momentum.

So that’s what this is.

International winners and losers. National. State. Hyperlocal in Cuyahoga County. And yes, movies, because if you’ve been reading me for any amount of time, you know I care deeply about cinema and probably overthink it.

At the end of the year, we can come back and see what I nailed and what I completely botched. If I bat .500, I’ll call that a success.

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International Winners of 2026

China

My biggest international winner for 2026 is China, and it’s not even close.

With the United States escalating globally, from Venezuela to renewed and very real talk about Greenland, it’s obvious we are now firmly in an energy and resource Cold War. Spheres of influence are being carved up again, not rhetorically but materially. Energy. Rare earths. Shipping routes. Strategic geography.

And the uncomfortable truth is that the United States is behind.

China has already done the hard, boring, long-term work. It has built energy production capacity at scale. It controls rare earth supply chains. It has already locked in relationships across the Global South through Belt and Road initiatives. It can build. It can plan. It can execute.

Meanwhile, the West is scrambling.

There is an urgency now in the U.S. and among Western allies to secure energy, minerals, and influence before it’s too late. That urgency creates instability. And instability benefits the country that already planned ahead.

China is also, frankly, doing the West a favor by not moving on Taiwan right now. That restraint matters. It buys time. It stabilizes markets. And it reinforces China’s image, relative to the United States.

When you combine China’s energy production, technical achievements, lock on rare earths, and already established global relationships, I don’t see a scenario where China does not continue to gain economic and geopolitical ground in 2026.

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Bad Bunny

Yes, Bad Bunny is also an international winner in 2026.

He’s already a global superstar, but the backlash around his upcoming Super Bowl appearance is only going to amplify him further. A lot of the criticism is transparently cultural, linguistic, and rooted in nonsense about Spanish-speaking artists and Puerto Rico blah blah blah.

Once people actually watch the halftime show, and once he absolutely kills it, a large segment of the population that previously ignored him will suddenly be paying attention.

That’s how superstardom compounds.

I don’t know how his profile gets bigger than it already is, but 2026 is somehow the year it does.

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International Losers of 2026

The U.S. Dollar

This is not a “America bad” take, so let’s get that out of the way immediately before I get emails saying I need to say more nice things about the USA.

This is about the dollar specifically.

The U.S. dollar’s dominance is being slowly but consistently eroded. Inflation matters. National debt matters. But so does intent. Countries are actively trying to transact outside of the dollar. Outside of SWIFT. Outside of American financial rails.

China does not want to transact in dollars. Russia either cannot or does not want to. And more countries are experimenting with alternative systems every year.

The dollar’s power is leverage. It’s control. It’s the ability to shape global behavior without firing a shot. Outside of the U.S. military, it is America’s most important tool.

That leverage weakens in 2026.

This does not mean GDP collapses. It does not mean asset prices crash. It does not mean the American economy cannot grow.

It means the dollar as a global weapon slowly loses effectiveness.

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Greenland

I originally thought the Greenland talk was just that. Talk.

After Venezuela, it’s clear it’s not.

Greenland has rare earths. Greenland sits in a strategic location as Arctic shipping routes open due to receding ice caps. Greenland matters in a world where China is restricting rare earth exports for its own strategic purposes.

For the United States, Greenland is no longer optional. It’s a necessity.

Whether Greenland wants this attention or not is not the conversation. And bluntly, I’m not convinced it will matter.

By the end of 2026, Greenland will be under U.S. strategic control in some form, official or unofficial. That reality makes Greenland, not the U.S., the loser here.

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National Winners of 2026

Democratic Socialists of America

The Mandani win was not a fluke. It was the result of a disciplined, modern, and frankly brilliant campaign.

The early optics of his mayoralty have been strong, and more importantly, his success has shown young people that participation actually works. That you can win. That you don’t have to wait your turn.

This has injected energy into the DSA pipeline nationally. More candidates. More volunteers. More confidence. More pressure inside the Democratic Party.

That momentum doesn’t stop in 2026. It accelerates and more seats will be won.

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Political Consultants

Unfortunately, political consultants are also massive winners.

2026 is going to be a spending bonanza. Democrats and Republicans will fight tooth and nail for control of Congress, and consultants will extract every dollar they can in the process.

They add little value. They recycle bad ideas. They drain campaigns dry.

But they always win.

I’ll write a separate piece breaking down how much money actually flows through consultants in an election year, because most people would be disgusted if they understood the scale and what these shit heads do.

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National Losers of 2026

Centrists and Independents

If you’re a centrist Democrat or Republican, this is not your year.

If you’re a Bill Clinton Democrat, a JFK Democrat, an Obama Democrat, or a John McCain or Reagan-style Republican, you are politically homeless in 2026.

The Democratic Party continues moving left. The Republican Party remains firmly controlled by MAGA. Messaging, money, and media attention all flow toward the extremes.

The center gets drowned out.

Middle America will once again be forced to hold its nose and vote for options it doesn’t love, because those are the only options presented.

I’m skeptical of a Democratic wave. Possible, yes. Guaranteed, no.

What I am certain of is that moderate voices will have less oxygen than ever.

Instead of kitchen table issues, expect more xenophobic rhetoric from the right and “The Message” from the left.

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Ohio Statewide Winners and Losers

Winners: Political Consultants (Again)

Ohio is about to be absolutely flooded with money, and the people who will benefit the most are not voters, not organizers, and not even the candidates themselves. It will be political consultants.

Sherrod Brown being back in the Senate race alone guarantees a torrent of national money. He is one of the last remaining high-profile Democrats in a state that has trended red, which makes Ohio irresistible to outside donors, party committees, and Super PACs looking for either a firewall or a comeback narrative. Pair that with a likely general election rematch energy still lingering from his race against Bernie Moreno, and the spending floor is already extraordinarily high before the race even truly heats up.

On the gubernatorial side, the matchup between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy is already nationalized. This is not a quiet, Ohio-only race. Acton brings name recognition from COVID-era politics and strong ties to Democratic donors. Ramaswamy brings national MAGA attention, billionaire-adjacent fundraising networks, and nonstop media oxygen. That combination alone ensures Ohio will be treated like a swing-state battleground, regardless of what the actual polling says.

Add in figures like David Pepper and broader national party involvement, and Ohio turns into a financial sinkhole. Money will pour in not because it is always strategically smart, but because no one wants to be blamed later for “not investing enough” if a race goes sideways.

This is how consultants win. Every competitive race becomes an excuse for more ad buys, more direct mail, more polling, more “strategic” messaging, and more digital spend. Most of it will be repetitive. Much of it will be ineffective. Almost all of it will be expensive.

There is a very real chance that this cycle produces one of the most expensive Senate races in American history, potentially eclipsing Brown’s last race. And Ohioans should brace themselves now. By summer, televisions, mailboxes, phones, and social feeds will be saturated. The volume will be relentless. The messaging will be loud, simplistic, and omnipresent.

The candidates will fight. The parties will posture. But the real winners, once again, will be the consultants cashing the checks.

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Loser: The Taxpayer

Property taxes are up. Budgets are strained. Public goods are underfunded. Inflation continues to squeeze households.

In 2026, taxpayers will be asked to pay more to cover widening gaps, with little relief in sight.

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Hyperlocal: Cuyahoga County

Winner: Justin Bibb

Whether strategic or accidental, Bibb’s confrontation with the Browns worked.

Letting the Browns move to Brook Park while opening the door to redevelop Burke Lakefront Airport could be the biggest win of any Cleveland mayor in modern history.

If he pulls this off, Bibb enters legitimate GOAT territory for Cleveland mayors. And crucially, he avoided being stuck with the demolition bill for the old stadium.

Developers are already lining up.

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Winner (Structurally): The Haslams and the Browns

Even with lawsuits attempting to block public or unclaimed funds, the Browns will get their stadium.

If the $600 million doesn’t come from one pot, it will come from another. The state will find the money. Construction will happen.

Brook Park will be reshaped. The Haslams will benefit enormously.

Whether the public does is a separate question.

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Loser: The Cuyahoga County Budget

The county is already deep in debt. Like $1 billion plus!

A new jail. Massive infrastructure needs. Brook Park redevelopment. Airport investment. Burke Lakefront. And still no serious effort to address basics like lead abatement, even as children continue to suffer preventable harm.

This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in disinvested areas. If it’s missed, it will be unforgivable.

But the political will to tighten belts or prioritize is rarely there.

Debt is easier.

That’s likely what we’ll get.

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Movies of 2026

Winners

Dune: Messiah

Denis Villeneuve has already delivered two modern sci-fi classics. Dune 1 & Dune 2. He proved he understands tone, restraint, and scale without turning the material into empty spectacle. Faithful enough to the books, visually stunning, and willing to let silence and atmosphere do real work. Messiah is darker, more political, and less crowd-pleasing by design, which actually makes me more confident. Villeneuve has earned trust.

Project Hail Mary

The trailer did not inspire confidence. It felt safe, maybe even a little hokey. But this is still coming from Andy Weir, the author of The Martian, which means the core ideas are probably strong. If they respect the science, let the story breathe, and don’t dumb it down, this could surprise people. Toss-up, but I’m betting it lands on the right side.

Disclosure Day (Steven Spielberg)

Spielberg directing… do I need to say more?
He understands pacing, emotional payoff, and how to communicate big ideas to wide audiences. My only real concern is age, because we’ve watched legendary directors lose their edge when they stay too long. Still, betting against Spielberg feels foolish. Even a “minor” Spielberg film is usually better than most studios’ best efforts.

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Losers

Avengers: Doomsday

This feels like nostalgia bait wrapped in a corporate panic response. Marvel is trying to resurrect emotional equity that no longer exists. The audience that built the MCU is older, more cynical, and less impressed by CGI noise. This looks like a cash grab designed to trigger memories, not tell a story. I don’t think it lands the way they think it will.

The Mandalorian & Grogu

After Andor, which is not just the best Star Wars story but some of the best TV of all time, this feels painfully shallow. The show devolved into episodic fluff and merchandising fuel, and now it’s being stretched into a movie. Grogu is a product first, a character second. Disney knows exactly what it’s doing here, and storytelling is not the priority. This will sell toys. It won’t move the franchise forward.

The Odyssey

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be there opening night. Nolan is still a master of scale, sound, and spectacle. It will look incredible. It will sound incredible. It will probably be technically impressive in every measurable way.

But Nolan has been disappearing into his own head for years. His films have become colder, more self-referential, and less human. It won’t be terrible. It just won’t be what it could have been or like up to Nolan’s historical wins. Like one of my favorite movies of all time Interstellar.

And yes, Nolan can make bad movies. The third Batman proved that.

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Final Thought

Those are my predictions for 2026.

Some will age poorly. Some will age uncomfortably well. If I hit half of them, I’ll take it.

Tell me what you think I nailed.
Tell me where I’m wrong.

Let’s check back in December.

Stay Angry